On November 28, the Georgian Prime Minister announced Georgian authorities halt EU accession process and government had decided to suspend further membership talks with the European Union for the next 4 years. In response, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators have been taking to the streets in protest against this decision for several days. Let’s take a look at what is actually happening in Georgia.
Elections won or rigged?
Let’s start with a brief reminder that on October 26, Georgia held parliamentary elections, which, according to the official results, were won by the party that has been in power for 12 years, the Georgian Dream. There was ample evidence of numerous irregularities during the voting. According to the opposition, the result of over 50% for the Georgian Dream was rigged. This does not change the fact that this party also had the greatest support in opposition polls, at around 30-40%.
For a month since the elections, opposition parties and NGOs have been organizing demonstrations, mainly in the center of Tbilisi, but most of them gathered a maximum of several thousand people. We tell you more about the political scene before the elections and the opposition parties in episode 36 of the podcast – our pre-election series.
Most opposition parties did not recognize the results and thus refused to accept their mandates as deputies, saying that the current parliament has no legitimacy. The first session of the parliament was held according to the election calendar, despite the fact that President Salome Zurabishvili appealed the results to the Georgian equivalent of the Constitutional Court.
Georgian authorities suspend cooperation with the European Union
On November 28, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, after receiving a vote of confidence from the new parliament, announced that
1. Georgia is suspending talks with the EU on membership until 2028
2. The Georgian authorities will not benefit from any EU funding programs or grants
3. Georgia will carry out the necessary reforms on its own and will join the EU on its own terms, “with dignity” in 2030.
On the same day, the EU parliament adopted a resolution to impose personal sanctions on leading politicians of the Georgian Dream, called on Georgia to hold new elections, and deemed the results of the October elections as devoid of legitimacy for citizens. In response, the government warned that it could expel the EU ambassador because this “external force” was interfering too much in the country’s internal politics.
Similar actions were already taking place between the Georgian authorities and the European Union before the elections. You can hear more about this in episode no. 39 of the Kaukazomaniacy podcast.
Citizens of Georgia are massively protesting against the government’s decision
On November 28, Georgians in the capital, Tbilisi, began demonstrating against the government’s decision. On the first day, several dozen thousand people took part in the demonstrations, and the protests took place in several locations in the capital. At night, Georgians also demonstrated in several other cities, including Batumi, Telavi and Zugdidi.
At night, in Tbilisi, the demonstrators were brutally dispersed by the police and special forces, dozens of people were detained, and several journalists were beaten while reporting live.
From November 29 to Sunday, December 1, the number of people taking to the streets to demonstrate has been growing every day. On the evening of December 30, it is estimated that there were at least 200 thousand people in Tbilisi, and other cities are joining the protests, including Kutaisi, Poti, Rustavi, Khashuri, Lechkhumi, Gori. Thus, there is almost no region of Georgia where there is no major or minor protest, and so far the number of people taking to the streets is growing every day.
There have been regular clashes with the police and masked special forces in front of the parliament in Tbilisi for 2 days, protesters build barricades, guard them during the day, reinforce them, and mainly at night they are attacked by the forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, who are trying to regain control over the streets.
Gradually, employees of several state institutions are signing letters of support for the pro-European and Euro-Atlantic direction of foreign policy, including ministries, the Tbilisi and Batumi mayors (equivalent to city halls), and public television. They emphasize that changing this strategy is inconsistent with the constitution. The Constitution of Georgia contains Article 78, which states that the purpose of foreign policy is cooperation and integration with European and Euro-Atlantic structures. Similarly, most universities in Georgia and several schools, mainly in Tbilisi, announced the suspension of classes and protests.
Why are Georgians protesting en masse now?
The Prime Minister’s announcement of the suspension of negotiations with the European Union means isolation for Georgia, loss of exchange programs, grants, and the relatively easy process of tourist or work trips to European Union countries. As I told you in episode 39 of the Kaukazomaniacy podcast, there is practically no sector of life in Georgia that has not been a beneficiary of the country’s cooperation with the EU or US structures.
One may get the impression that the government’s decision came as a surprise to many people, because at the level of declarations tive in the campaign, the Georgian Dream spoke of the desire for further integration with the EU, although they added that it was “on its own terms”.
The narrative that appears among the protesters includes slogans opposing isolationism, disagreement with the lack or suspension of cooperation with the EU, as well as anti-Russian threads and warnings against returning to the times of the USSR and Georgia’s loss of independence.
Is Russia really “interfering” in Georgia?
Ever since the May demonstrations against the so-called Russian law, the term Russia, Russian has been used as a label for undemocratic, anti-European actions that take away citizens’ freedom. In many situations, it is more of a rhetorical device, defining “what is bad for Georgia” according to the protesters. The term “Soviet” is used similarly.
I am saying this because in Polish rhetoric we very often simplify the situation in the Caucasus, or more precisely in Georgia, as supposedly played out between two worlds – a division dating back to the times of the USSR.
Therefore, the actions of the current authorities and leading politicians of the Georgian Dream are more likely to be seen as attempts to maintain and strengthen political and economic power in the country than as striving for broad integration with Russia as such. And the reforms required by the EU support transparency, strengthening citizens’ rights, and the independence of the courts.
What will be the effect of the mass demonstrations in Georgia?
Currently – 3 days after the announcement of the decision to change foreign policy – it is difficult to determine what exactly will happen in Georgia by the end of the year. I receive questions from you about the leaders of these demonstrations.
Currently, there is no such leader or political leaders who could lead the protesters and become a new, fully or overwhelmingly supported party. President Salome Zurabishvili, about whom you also ask me sometimes, is more of a mentor who can advise the leaders. However, she is undoubtedly one of the few people, politicians, who have high support and public trust.
Her term ends in December and perhaps then she will want to change her position and plan to become the leader of the opposition. There is currently little evidence of this. If I may use an analogy from pop culture, he is more Master Yoda than Luke Skywalker of Georgia.
Will the Georgian Dream change his mind and policy? Currently, the prime minister states that the police’s behavior is correct and adequate, which, by the way, motivates more people to go to protests. Much depends, among other things, on how long such a number of people will protest in Georgia and how many employees of other state institutions will support the protesters.